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Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Beat and raise quarter: Q4 revenue rose 27.8% year over year to $110.4M, Adjusted EBITDA rose 37.4% to $40.2M, and Adjusted EPS was $0.11; management simultaneously raised FY25 guidance across revenue, EBITDA, EPS, and net income .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, LOAR beat on revenue (Actual $110.4M vs $102.5M estimate*) and matched/slightly beat on Primary EPS ($0.11 vs $0.108*), while S&P “EBITDA” tracked near consensus; note definitional differences with company Adjusted EBITDA (company reported $40.2M) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Mix and transitory costs tempered margin upside: net income margin was 3.3% (refinancing costs and interest), and management cited defense mix, facility move and public-company infrastructure as margin diluters; however gross margin improved ~250 bps YoY and Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 36.4% .
  • Positive FY25 setup and catalysts: guidance raised to revenue $480–$488M, Adjusted EBITDA $180–$184M, Adjusted EPS $0.70–$0.75; demand strong across end-markets, aftermarket bookings solid, and PMA pipeline/price initiatives in flight; pending LMB Fans & Motors acquisition expected to close in 3Q25 (not in guidance) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Strong top-line and profitability momentum: Q4 revenue +27.8% YoY to $110.4M; Adjusted EBITDA +37.4% YoY to $40.2M with margin 36.4% (up from 33.8%) on pricing, productivity, and operating leverage .
    • Defense strength and broad-based demand: Q4 defense sales nearly doubled YoY to $29.5M; commercial aftermarket and OEM both grew double-digits YoY; management: “challenge this year is keeping up with demand” .
    • Raised FY25 outlook: revenue to $480–$488M (from $470–$480M Feb outlook), Adjusted EBITDA to $180–$184M (from $176–$180M), Adjusted EPS to $0.70–$0.75 (from $0.67–$0.72); CEO: “we are ahead of our plan on our value pricing and productivity initiatives” .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Mix and infrastructure costs diluted margins: management flagged defense mix, a facility relocation, and added public-company costs as headwinds; Q4 net income margin 3.3% despite strong EBITDA margin .
    • “Other” end-market down YoY in Q4 (to $7.7M from $10.2M), partially offset by sequential uptick vs Q3; management remains focused on A&D mix over time .
    • S&P “EBITDA” near consensus rather than a clear beat; definitional differences vs company Adjusted EBITDA can create headline ambiguity despite company’s stronger Adjusted EBITDA performance* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$97.015 $103.519 $110.441
Diluted EPS ($)$0.09 $0.09 $0.04
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.13 $0.15 $0.11
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$35.031 $38.096 $40.178
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)36.1% 36.8% 36.4%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$7.641 $8.656 $3.685
Net Income Margin (%)7.9% 8.4% 3.3%

Segment sales mix (Totals)

SegmentQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Commercial (Total) ($M)$60.564 $74.914 $73.294
Defense (Total) ($M)$15.636 $21.962 $29.474
Other (Total) ($M)$10.235 $6.643 $7.673
Total Revenue ($M)$86.435 $103.519 $110.441

Consensus vs actuals (S&P Global; Primary EPS refers to S&P’s primary/adjusted EPS)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue Actual ($M)$97.015 $103.519 $110.441
Revenue Consensus Mean ($M)*$91.666*$97.631*$102.510*
Primary EPS Actual ($) (S&P)*$0.13*$0.15*$0.11*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)*$0.097*$0.130*$0.108*
EBITDA Actual ($M) (S&P)*$30.644*$34.876*$38.462*
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($M)*$33.049*$35.642*$38.740*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Notes: Company-reported Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $40.178M vs S&P “EBITDA” actual $38.462M, reflecting definitional differences (company Adjusted EBITDA includes specific add-backs) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net SalesFY 2025$470–$480M (Feb-21-2025) $480–$488M (Mar-31-2025) Raised
Net IncomeFY 2025$55–$60M (Feb-21-2025) $58–$63M (Mar-31-2025) Raised
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$176–$180M (Feb-21-2025) $180–$184M (Mar-31-2025) Raised
Diluted EPSFY 2025$0.57–$0.62 (Feb-21-2025) $0.60–$0.65 (Mar-31-2025) Raised
Adjusted EPSFY 2025$0.67–$0.72 (Feb-21-2025) $0.70–$0.75 (Mar-31-2025) Raised
Adjusted EBITDA MarginFY 2025~37.5% (Feb-21-2025) ~37.5% (Mar-31-2025) Maintained
Interest ExpenseFY 2025~ $28M (Feb-21-2025) ~ $28M (Mar-31-2025) Maintained
Market AssumptionsFY 2025Commercial OEM/AM high single digits; Defense high double digits (Feb-21-2025) Same (Mar-31-2025) Maintained

Context: Initial FY2025 guide on Nov 13, 2024 was materially lower (Net Income $33–$37M; Diluted EPS $0.35–$0.40; Interest ~$60M) before the February and March upward revisions .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3)Current Period (Q4)Trend
Aftermarket demand/backlogRecord bookings; strategy change to extend lead times improved visibility; book-to-bill >1; “blue skies” commentary “Backlog is fairly strong… challenge is keeping up with demand” with 1–3 month lead times; confident outlook Strength sustained
Pricing & productivityValue-based pricing and productivity underpin margins; 2024 margin dilution from defense mix and relocation; public co costs Ahead of plan on value pricing/productivity in 1Q25; 120 bps margin expansion targeted for 2025; high confidence Improving
OEM production/supply chainConservative on MAX; Airbus relatively stronger; non-big OEMs (Embraer, etc.) robust Assuming YE rates ~30/mo Boeing narrow-body and ~50/mo Airbus; cautious but constructive Cautious optimism
Defense mixQ2/Q3 defense strong but lower margin Defense up sharply in Q4, acknowledged margin dilution near term Positive revenue; mixed for margins
PMA/new productsPMA approvals pending; targeted 1–3 pts of annual growth PMA programs through key tests; expecting adoption late 2025/early 2026; 1–3 pts still the goal Pipeline progressing
Tariffs/input costsNot prominent in Q2/Q3 callsLimited near-term impact due to pre-buys; proprietary content supports pass-through; 2nd sources in U.S. Managed risk
M&A pipelineActive, disciplined (Applied Avionics closed in Q3) Active; LMB put agreement signed; expect 1–2 deals/year; LMB close targeted 3Q25 Ongoing consolidation

Management Commentary

  • “We are ahead of our plan on our value pricing and productivity initiatives… the challenge we see this year is keeping up with demand.” — CEO Dirkson Charles .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA margins remained strong at 36.4%… partially offset by a higher mix of defense sales and the continued build-out of our infrastructure.” — CFO Glenn D’Alessandro .
  • “We are highly confident of achieving [~120 bps] margin improvement [in 2025].” — CEO Dirkson Charles .
  • “Our aftermarket backlog looks really, really strong… we have conversations with customers every quarter updating the next 12 months.” — CEO Dirkson Charles .
  • On tariffs: “We will pass along any increase in cost… there’s not going to be a lot of a hit for us this year given the extra inventory… and 99% of the cases [we have] a second source in the U.S.” — CEO Dirkson Charles .

Q&A Highlights

  • Aftermarket strength and visibility: Backlog solid with short lead times; demand the constraint; confidence embedded in guidance .
  • 2025 margin drivers: Applied Avionics is accretive but not the sole driver; pricing > inflation and operating leverage support ~120 bps expansion; timing skewed to 2H25 .
  • OEM cadence: Assumptions of YE Boeing ~30/month and Airbus ~50/month underpin cautious planning; variability by part/product .
  • Tariffs and input costs: Limited 2025 impact expected due to inventory positioning; proprietary portfolio supports price pass-through; diversified sourcing .
  • M&A: Pipeline active; target pace 1–2 deals/year; LMB Fans & Motors under French review, expected 3Q25 close, mostly Europe defense exposure .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024: Revenue beat (Actual $110.4M vs $102.5M estimate*), Primary EPS slightly above (Actual $0.11 vs $0.108*). S&P “EBITDA” actual ~$38.5M vs ~$38.7M estimate*, while company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $40.2M (higher due to add-backs) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Q3 2024: Revenue beat (Actual $103.5M vs $97.6M*), Primary EPS beat ($0.15 vs $0.130*), S&P “EBITDA” modestly below consensus (Actual ~$34.9M vs ~$35.6M*), again differing from company’s Adjusted EBITDA of $38.1M . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Q2 2024: Revenue beat (Actual $97.0M vs $91.7M*), Primary EPS beat ($0.13 vs $0.097*), S&P “EBITDA” below consensus (~$30.6M vs ~$33.0M*) vs company Adjusted EBITDA of $35.0M . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Implications: Street models likely lift FY25 revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and EPS to reflect March raise (and stronger demand/pipeline), while reconciling S&P “EBITDA” vs company Adjusted EBITDA definitions in target setting .

Key Drivers Behind Results

  • Pricing, productivity and leverage: Margin progress driven by value-based pricing and operating leverage on higher volumes, partially offset by defense mix and infrastructure investments .
  • End-market breadth: Commercial OEM and aftermarket both grew double-digits; defense surged as Loar gained share on new product launches; OEM ordering patterns mixed but improving net of customer bottlenecks .
  • Non-GAAP adjustments: Q4 Adjusted EPS of $0.11 includes add-backs for refinancing costs ($4.8M), inventory step-up, transaction costs, stock-based comp, integration costs, and related tax effects .

Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q4 context)

  • Put agreement to acquire LMB Fans & Motors for ~€365M + net debt; primarily European defense exposure; financing via incremental term facility and cash; close expected before end of 3Q25 (not in FY25 guide) .
  • Preliminary Q4/FY24 results (Feb 21): ranges aligned closely with final 8-K; reaffirmed/upgraded initial FY25 guidance ahead of the March raise .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Beat-and-raise pattern intact; FY25 outlook moved higher across revenue, EBITDA, and EPS with demand broad-based and pricing/productivity tracking ahead of plan .
  • Aftermarket and defense remain twin engines; defense growth is margin-dilutive near term, but pricing and leverage offset, keeping Adjusted EBITDA margins mid‑30s and expanding in FY25 .
  • Street likely revises FY25 estimates upward to match raised guidance; pay attention to definition differences between S&P “EBITDA” and company Adjusted EBITDA in comp sheets* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Watch catalysts: PMA certifications/adoption in late 2025/early 2026, further price resets/LTAs, and LMB acquisition close in 3Q25 (incremental European defense exposure) .
  • Balance sheet improved in 2024 with debt reduction post-IPO; YE 2024 long-term debt $277.3M vs $528.6M YE 2023; interest expense guide down to ~$28M in FY25 supports EPS leverage .
  • Risk checks: OEM cadence variability, defense mix on margins, and tariff/inflation pass-through execution; management indicates buffers via inventory, pricing power, and dual sourcing .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.